Higher ed consolidation could pick up in 2019, Fitch says - Ben Unglesbee, Education Dive

Fitch Ratings on Thursday issued a negative outlook for the higher education sector for the coming year as colleges grapple with numerous operational issues including increased competition for students, according to a client note emailed to Education Dive. In lowering the outlook from "stable" to "negative," analysts with the ratings agency said lower-tier institutions could suffer disproportionately from "[n]ear-term constraints on tuition growth, price sensitivity, longer term demographic shifts, and increasing uncertainty on federal and state regulatory and funding support." The analysts, led by Fitch director Emily Wadhwani, also noted college consolidation "may accelerate," including through mergers, acquisitions, affiliations and, in the most dire cases, closures. The overall closure rate remains below 1%, however. Fitch follows Moody's in issuing a negative outlook for higher ed. On Tuesday, Moody's maintained its negative outlook for the second consecutive year, citing many of the same conditions, according to a report emailed to Education Dive. Chief among them is low tuition revenue growth — which Moody's estimates will be between 1% and 3.5% sectorwide — due to a focus on affordability and competition over students. https://www.educationdive.com/news/higher-ed-consolidation-could-pick-up-in-2019-fitch-says/543798/